Is a priority-list listing ever more than a name on a spreadsheet? Measured, not asserted.
Every rate on this page is directional right now. Our snapshot history is still short — as little as one or two cycles for some lists — so these are early reads, not stable long-run rates. They will sharpen automatically as more years of data accumulate; we are not going to round a thin sample into a clean-looking percentage.
We tracked every project across every snapshot we have captured and measured how many actually reached the fundable range or funding list — the closest thing to imminent procurement these documents let us see. We never assert a project was funded, awarded, went to bid, or began construction. Leaving a list is reported as ambiguous — funded, withdrawn, or deferred, the documents do not say which — never as a positive outcome.
Clean Water Fund Program
Progression
Within 1 cycle17% (CI 14–21%, n=489) (directional)
Cohorts SFY2024–2025, first listed on the PPL. Reached the funding list — the closest signal to imminent procurement.
Within 2 cycles8% (CI 7–10%, n=784) (directional)
Cohorts SFY2023–2024, first listed on the PPL. Reached the funding list — the closest signal to imminent procurement.
Within 3 cycles8% (CI 6–10%, n=533) (directional)
Cohorts SFY2023–2023, first listed on the PPL. Reached the funding list — the closest signal to imminent procurement.
Persistence & attrition
After 1 cyclen=1,022
57% remained listed without yet reaching that point; 35% were no longer listed — funded, withdrawn, or deferred, not distinguished.
After 2 cyclesn=784
37% remained listed without yet reaching that point; 55% were no longer listed — funded, withdrawn, or deferred, not distinguished.
After 3 cyclesn=533
27% remained listed without yet reaching that point; 65% were no longer listed — funded, withdrawn, or deferred, not distinguished.
Velocity
Among 181 projects that reached the funding list, the typical time from first listing was 23.2 months (interquartile range 11.2–35.2 months) (directional).
Safe Drinking Water Loan Program
Progression
Within 1 cycle14% (CI 11–17%, n=582) (directional)
Cohorts SFY2024–2025, first listed on the PPL. Reached the funding list — the closest signal to imminent procurement.
Within 2 cycles7% (CI 5–9%, n=611) (directional)
Cohorts SFY2023–2024, first listed on the PPL. Reached the funding list — the closest signal to imminent procurement.
Within 3 cycles6% (CI 4–9%, n=293) (directional)
Cohorts SFY2023–2023, first listed on the PPL. Reached the funding list — the closest signal to imminent procurement.
Persistence & attrition
After 1 cyclen=875
38% remained listed without yet reaching that point; 53% were no longer listed — funded, withdrawn, or deferred, not distinguished.
After 2 cyclesn=611
23% remained listed without yet reaching that point; 71% were no longer listed — funded, withdrawn, or deferred, not distinguished.
After 3 cyclesn=293
22% remained listed without yet reaching that point; 72% were no longer listed — funded, withdrawn, or deferred, not distinguished.
Velocity
Among 155 projects that reached the funding list, the typical time from first listing was 11.2 months (interquartile range 11.2–23.3 months) (directional).